lunedì 1 settembre 2008

Però, non c'è da stare allegri !!!

Oggi ho mandato uno spunto di riflessione ad un po' di persone che conosco in giro per il mondo, lo spunto era questo :

Democracy as a form of government has been spreading for centuries.
In 1940s Japan changed from an empire to a democracy. In the 1980s, the Russian Soviet
system collapsed, and now the country holds "multy-party" elections. In the 1990s China
adopted free-market reforms. In March 2008 Iraq celebrated a new democtratic constitution.
Fifty years from today, will a larger or smaller percentage of the world's population live
under democracy ?

Queste le risposte che ho ricevuto fino ad ora :

The current trend is that many western democracies are slowly changing into semi-totalitarian police-states, where civil rights of the people are taken away out of fear for terrorism. In other parts of the world, you can also see a trend that people vote for more radical political parties (whether these are based on religion, extreme left, right or green) because they are very unhappy with the more traditional parties. If these trends continues then I fear that in 50 years from now most people will live under a polical system that is still called democracy, but which we (in our current age and time) won't recognize as democracy.

I believe that to answer this question you would have to define the scope of democracy.
While there are many forms of "democracy" throughout the world today, there is not a good definition of what is or is not a democracy. In fifty years there may be more, but will they be recognized as democratic states? This may be as elusive as what Bill Clinton's definition of "is" is.

The other thing that is in question is the result of forced democracy by foreign order (Iraq) to free their country from entrenched foreign military power. Can this system last once the foreign military withdraws?

Is democracy the right answer for any given country? Who decides? Is it the voice of the people or something else?

1st before I get started in your question, China is a very communist country who does not use any form of democracy. Also democracy and capitalism are not always hand in hand. Finally, the US is not a democracy, it is a republic.

In 2058, When I am 72 years old reflecting back. Will there be more democratic societies in the world? For the most part yes. Several of the countries throughout the world are becoming more and more democratic. however is it the democratic system we want, or the leader. Hugo Chaves, after all was elected in a democratic society. So was Ammendinjiad. It would not surprise me to see more democratic societies in the world. There are great reasons for this. The increase in global standard of living and access to education/knowledge will make the people of non-democratic countries demand free elections. Though I could also see a possible optimistic view where more and more a global democracy, i.e. the EU morphs with UN to become global country. Thus creating a global democracy.

As far as western Europe is concerned, Tom Van Breukelen is right about fear inspiring society to slide towards more control and more repressive action.
I believe that this is a consequence of the concurrence of several conditions:
- the increasing average age of citizens, which is putting a lot of strain on the social security systems that were thought of as inexhaustible by the
present generations - now pension systems are expected to fail in the next five to ten years to come and healthcare refund systems are already
on a crash course
- the downhill economical course in Western Europe, with the exodus of classic industries, first to Eastern Europe and later to Asia and Africa,
and with the downsizing of european branches of elsewhere based industies
- the influx of legal or illegal immigrants and the question of how to deal with it in both a humanitarian and economical perspective
- the paradox between a European Union and a mild type of nationalism as a protection against "foreign economical parasitism"
- the political scene that is taking advantage of the growing feeling of unsafety and that is sliding towards short term populism as opposed to
long term statesmanship
To answer your question (finally): I think that it will take a lot of democratic development in the rest of the world to not have the scales tilt over to LESS in fifty years from now.

I am pretty convinced that Republics and Democratic society will be less and less. The 'republics' that we see are either socialist in nature OR they are mostly military governments. More islamic influence (the militant kind not the moderate kind) will be prevalent.
Many will trade security for freedom. More rights are becoming limited and free speech continues to be limited in America (if it opposes business or educational system rules). We have more anything goes, so we will drift more into "I can't believe that!" and government will continue to grow. Federal Govt. is NOT the answer to our problems but often an inefficient means of micromanagement and taxation. Pray for peace.

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